L.R. NO. 3820-02
BILL NO. SJR 51
SUBJECT: Constitutional Amendments: Tobacco Products
TYPE: Original
DATE: March 27, 2000
Net Effect on All
State Funds *Foregone anticipated revenues (deposited in Tobacco Settlement Trust Fund instead of the
General Revenue Fund) Net Effect on All
Federal Funds Numbers within parentheses: ( ) indicate costs or losses This fiscal note contains 5 pages. LR NO. 3820-02 BILL NO. SJR 51 PAGE 2 OF 5 March 27, 2000 ASSUMPTION Officials of the Department of Social Services, Department of Health, Department of Mental
Health, Department of Revenue (DOR), and Office of the State Treasurer assumed that the
proposed legislation would have no fiscal impact on their agencies or that they could accomplish
duties under this proposal with existing resources. Oversight notes that there would be fiscal
impact due to creation of the Missouri Respect for Life Commission; however, those costs would
be addressed in the enabling legislation for this proposal. Estimates of amounts Missouri will receive from the Master Settlement Agreement are ranged
from estimates made by the Office of Administration - Division of Budget and Planning to
estimates published by the National Governors Association (NGA). Budget and Planning's estimates assume upward inflation adjustments of three percent (3%) to
each years annual payment and downward volume adjustments of 10% in 2000, 12.7% in 2001,
14.9% in 2002, and 16.6% in 2003. These volume adjustment assumptions are those
recommended by Federal Funds Information for States and are based on estimates developed by
Standard and Poors. The NGA figures do not include any offsets, reductions or adjustments; therefore, Oversight has
included a 3% per year inflation adjustment. For purposes of simplifying the fiscal note, Oversight has used the estimates of the Office of
Budget and Planning. Please see the attachment for complete schedules of ranges of estimates. Advertisement costs for the proposal would be $4,380 per newspaper column inch for three
publications of the text of the proposal, the introduction, title, fiscal note summary, and affidavit.
The proposal would be on the ballot for the November 2000 general election. LR NO. 3820-02 BILL NO SJR 51 PAGE 3 OF 5 March 27, 2000 FISCAL IMPACT - State Government FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 GENERAL REVENUE FUND Cost-Secretary of State Newspaper Advertisements ($43,800) $0 $0 Foregone Revenue - Tobacco Settlement ($135,420,621) ($162,447,798) ($164,044,888) FISCAL IMPACT - State Government FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 ESTIMATED NET EFFECT ON GENERAL REVENUE FUND ($135,464,421 ($162,447,798 ($164,044,888 TOBACCO SETTLEMENT TRUST FUND Income - Tobacco Settlement $135,420,621 $162,447,798 $2,131,581 ESTIMATED NET EFFECT ON FUND FOR MISSOURI'S FUTURE $135,420,621 $162,447,798 $2,131,581 MISSOURI ALTERNATIVES TO ABORTION SUPPORT FUND Income - 2% of earnings on Tobacco Settlement Trust Fund moneys $0 Unknown Unknown Cost - Missouri Respect Life Commission administrative and program costs $0 (Unknown) (Unknown) ESTIMATED NET EFFECT ON MISSOURI ALTERNATIVES TO ABORTION SUPPORT FUND $0 $0 $0 FISCAL IMPACT - Local Government FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 $0 $0 $0 LR NO. 3820-02 BILL NO SJR 51 PAGE 4 OF 5 March 27, 2000 FISCAL IMPACT - Small Business No direct fiscal impact to small businesses would be expected as a result of this proposal. DESCRIPTION This proposal would establish a Tobacco Settlement Trust Fund to receive monies from an award
or settlement between the state of Missouri and tobacco companies. The principal of the Tobacco Settlement Trust Fund could only be used if the definition of an
emergency as set out in section 19 of article X of the state constitution were met. Earnings on the
principal of the Fund would be available for appropriation by the legislature. Two percent (2%) of the monies available for appropriation would be appropriated to the
Missouri Alternatives to Abortion Support Fund, which would be used for alternative to abortion
services, entities that provide those services and other purposes as provided by law. The legislature would enact laws to fulfill the purposes of the proposal. This legislation is not federally mandated, would not duplicate any other program, would not
require additional capital improvements or rental space. The proposal would not affect Total
State Revenues. SOURCES OF INFORMATION Department of Health Department of Mental Health Department of Revenue Department of Social Services Secretary of State State Treasurer National Governors Association Federal Funds Information for States Issue Brief 99-16: Estimating Tobacco Payments Jeanne Jarrett, CPA Director March 27, 2000 LR NO. 3820-02 BILL NO SJR 51 PAGE 5 OF 5 March 27, 2000
FUND AFFECTED
FY 2001
FY 2002
FY 2003 General Revenue*
($135,464,421)
($162,447,798)
($164,044,888) Tobacco Settlement
Trust Fund
$135,420,621
$162,447,798
$164,044,888 Missouri Alternatives
to Abortion Support
$0
$0
$0 Total Estimated
($43,800)
$0
$0
FUND AFFECTED
FY 2001
FY 2002
FY 2003 None
Total Estimated
$0
$0
$0
FUND AFFECTED
FY 2001
FY 2002
FY 2003 Local Government
$0
$0
$0
Year
OA - B&P
Governors
3% CPI Increase
Association
1998
$54,590,426
$54,590,426
$54,590,426 1999
$0
$0
$0 2000
$129,451,392
$145,841,736
$150,216,988 2001
$135,420,621
$157,485,647
$167,076,523 2002
$162,447,798
$189,094,295
$206,623,336 2003
$164,044,888
$190,883,868
$214,820,705 2004
$143,399,390
$159,313,061
$184,659,769 2005
$144,834,156
$159,313,061
$190,203,864 2006
$146,278,082
$159,313,061
$195,907,271 2007
$147,740,792
$159,313,061
$201,785,923 2008
$164,693,218
$175,833,051
$181,916,875 2009
$166,353,707
$175,833,051
$236,266,871 2010
$168,003,541
$175,833,051
$243,352,943 2011
$169,675,393
$175,833,051
$250,667,598 2012
$171,378,869
$175,833,051
$261,340,664 2013
$173,100,158
$175,833,051
$265,929,906 2014
$174,833,563
$175,833,051
$273,895,144 2015
$176,602,091
$175,833,051
$282,124,130 2016
$178,364,609
$175,833,051
$290,581,700 2017
$180,168,255
$175,833,051
$299,303,019 2018
$188,424,839
$182,059,072
$319,204,171 2019
$190,339,585
$182,059,072
$328,780,478 2020
$192,257,965
$182,059,072
$338,629,874 2021
$194,207,025
$182,059,072
$348,788,770 2022
$196,152,138
$182,059,072
$359,257,167 2023
$198,156,125
$182,059,072
$370,035,064 2024
$200,180,829
$182,059,072
$381,140,667 2025
$202,222,663
$182,059,072
$392,573,977
Total
$4,513,322,118
$4,589,951,302
$6,989,673,821